Stock markets worldwide, especially in Asia, have been seeing some significant recoveries over the last week. Economic data has been bad, as usual, but not as bad as it used to be, but it helps to see G-20 leaders meet for some constructive actions, including a new injection to the IMF. A few key statistics turned out to be better than the profession expected. Commodities picked up their prices again. Dows back to 8000, Gold on 920, Oil mid 50s. Some chief economists at some funds are already recommending their clients to get into the market, expecting the economy to recover in the second half of 2009.

What the fuck? Are you serious?

If I’m not mistaken, those banks, insurance companies, and car manufacturers are still hanging there, waiting to be hung, or dead and gone already? My feeling is that the financial crisis has started long before it is even picked up by the prophets on high street but if one considers the forbidden d word, I think it has not even started. “We’ve gone through the worst of the worst?”In five years time people will start talking about how we should have suffered the pain instead of prolonging the real crisis but a fake recovery. Sadly, the general atmosphere over the media gives out an eager to impress attitude, which may unfortunately be reflecting the typical short term thinking of the pea sized brains. It seems that they are already building another bubble.

When I said pea size brains I didn’t mean it as an attack but a mere observation for the lack of uniqueness and independent thinking, but plenty of trend following and bullshitting. I must keep this remembered in my mind, as professor D. once said “(talking about universities in the states) America is such a country that a young, good looking young man/woman can stand up in an auditorium of one thousand people, confidently saying something loud and point driven, but saying something that is completely nonsense, absolutely rubbish.”

fuck

I have my practice account investment value wiped out roughly 80% in two seconds by a sudden jump of the Euro/USD as the ECB announced key IR to 1.25% from 1.5%, instead of the expected 1%. I went in blind and I went in uninformed, which was a grave mistake on my part. Should I be investing with real money the result is unthinkable. And I must put it on my priority list to find out what the fuck it means when they say “investors’ expectation”. Shit, how complacent I was to actually believe that the ECB will have the balls to cut .5% or even more?

article: EU Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Drop 6%

Basically the point I’m trying to make here is, that I’m right. Lol. Common sense finally rules over speculative moral marketing bombardment that we saw in the last few years. The problem with pollution, Al Gore, and unsustainable living is that it is a problem that is the symptom of the economy, not the cause.

A lot of environmentalist campaigns would have quoted Ghandi in saying the earth can satisfy our need but not our greed, something like that; but the logical deduction from this word of wisdom is not that we should live morally and limit only to our need, because that would be stupid, but that living on our greed is not sustainable, and hence one day this way of living will collapse, automatically.

I’m a big fan of green energy, sustainable cities, and disciplined economies in favour of triple bottom lines, economical, social and environmental. But on top of all that I’m a big fan of good sense. Showering the world with moral messages to promote a new generation of economic products invested by a new generation of capitalists is not good sense. It’s brain washing and media pollution.

Consider this unlikely candidate, China. In the last couple of years a few things happened in China, due to massive amounts of pressure from international pressure groups, but also, the simple rule of supply and demand: plastic bags in supermarkets costs about fifty cents each; in a lot of government backed building projects, solar hot water provided for free; cities where there’s not enough electricity, turn off the unnecessary power that lights up the commercial buildings at night; new public urban developments, L.E.D. lights covered.

A lot of these things happened in the more advanced and economically well off cities, but there is a sense of action you can see. There is no lobbying, no hesitation, and certainly no consideration on whether 50 cents a plastic bag will upset some French billionaire investor on his supermarket chain stores. You either follow the rules or you see yourself to the lift, plain simple. We are not a country that lives on extravagance, when there’s niche to save money, we’ll do it, on government level, and on individual level.  Even the Benz driving cigar smoking corporate bosses over forty five remember what it was like decades ago when there was no food, when brothers and sisters swelled into balloons due to hunger and died; whilst the LV wearing cognac drinking  young elites over thirty certainly can’t forget the early days in the city when chaos and violence and uncertainty ruled, working their lives off for no more than a warm food and bed everyday. There’s no morality involved, but fifty cents saved is fifty cents saved, our collective memories, just as our collective reality, is nothing but that sense of urgency. THAT is how you get something done.

Article: Singapore Lightens Up - The restrictive city-state relaxes some limits on theatres in a bid to become an arts hub

It is not a good sign when a city is turning itself into a tourist attraction. Think about Rome, or Paris, generating loads of income through whatever they do in tourist cities these days, living an extended exhibition show curated by the stones and sticks laid down centuries ago, their intrinsic meaning long dead and buried in history. For Obama’s sake it is Rome, the name that used to mean conquer and brutality and power, now merely decayed in the dusts of time.

The best comparison is Hong Kong, actually. In the last financial crisis about ten years ago, the city lost its financial edge and decided to promote an image of a world tourist city, then afterwards a high tech city, then afterwards a Chinese traditional medicine city, among other totally random and uncreative new names. It doesn’t work. A city has a life span that cannot be reversed. It must die, and then wait in the queue for its chance to revive. Germany did it, Japan did it, Barcelona did it, and arguably China too.

Theatre is culture, certainly? Not for Singapore. Culture is most effective for a bored and complacent society, like ancient Greece, or America in the 70s; or most edge cutting in times of revolutions, like the 18th and 19th centuries. But for a people like Singapore, and at a time like this,  theatre is but Viagra, you know it’s not going to do you any good.

today in the news

Obama to Announce New Strategic Dialogue With China 
Mr. President, clearly, has not yet made up his mind with regards to whether to visit China personally or not. Everyone knows the name of the new treasury secretary Timonthy Geithner as he busies himself with all the failing banks and car factories. Putting him on the job as well as Secretary of State Hilary Clinton is a formal political gesture that recognizes the importance of the counterparty. But then dealing with China without making personal connections first seems like buying dinner over the internet, which works perfectly well in principle but lacks a personal touch that may be crucial.

When it comes to a personal visit Obama may consider it a politically challenging gesture to pay China without first making sure that he will be treated properly in return, that the carpets will be rolled out for him. Given the economic tension in the states and the G-20 meeting, moreover, it doesn’t seem like a convenient time.

On the other end of the ocean, however, China is getting anxious and impatient with its 2 trillion US reserves that are declining in value day by day as BOA keeps printing money, given no realistic alternatives but to keep purchasing even more. Then some noises were made last week regarding a global currency, etc. etc. One would expect the economical brains in China are now squeezing themselves to think of a more rewarding, alternative approach. If I were Obama, I wouldn’t be so passionately seeing British prime minister Gordon Brown before the meeting, but making friends with the Asians instead. Britain is screwed anyway, leave them alone.