Sunday, March 28, 2010

Japan's having a deflation

deflation is not good at this time.
and this time it's caused by a combination of falling export, lowered business and investment opportunities, and the chronicle low interest rates which encourages people to hold on to the money rather than doing anything with it.
so if Bank of Japan counters this by quantitative easing, i.e. printing money, it should theoretically lower the value of the Yen, hopefully encouraging export and domestic circulation.
I believe that at the end it all comes to what the economy lives on, its role as a exporter and as a world financial center. Export really depends on the US (which i think is not that positive on buying things overseas at the moment) and financial centre (there're too many of them, most in trouble).
I am thinking a gradual bull on USD/JPY.

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